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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still