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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.